Choices in Conflict: Navigating Asymmetric Wars with Historical Wisdom
Conflicts are a part and parcel of human existence. This becomes a problem when power asymmetry upsets the delicate balance.
In chess, the pivotal move isn’t just strategy, but what you assume about your opponent’s next moves. History reveals that wars and peace-talks hinge on deliberate choices by leaders and people, shaped by two core assumptions about the other side’s motives.
These choices determine whether we spiral into bloodshed or find peace, especially in asymmetric conflicts where power imbalances loom large. By weaving through historical tales, we’ll uncover which assumption offers the best shot at peace, order, and justice with the least human cost—particularly so, in today’s divided world.
The first assumption is rigid: our side stands for peace, order, and justice, while the other seeks violence, anarchy, and injustice. This mindset slams the door on talks, viewing any offer of negotiation as a ruse.
The second assumption is open-hearted: both sides want peace, order, and justice, just through different paths—clashing cultures, interests, or values. Those who adopt this view prioritize negotiation and compromise.
When both sides embrace the first assumption, it’s a recipe for devastation, as seen in the War on Terror post-9/11. The U.S., wielding immense power, assumed its invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were righteous crusades for order, branding groups like al-Qaeda as chaos incarnate. These groups, vastly weaker, saw themselves as resisting Western oppression. Both refused dialogue, choosing violence. The toll? Over 800,000 deaths in Iraq and conflicts that still fester. This mutual demonization shows how a “we’re good, they’re evil” mindset wrecks both sides.
Take the Vietnam War (1955–1975), where the U.S., the stronger side, assumed North Vietnam and the Viet Cong were threats to global order, rejecting serious talks. The weaker Vietnamese, fighting for independence and justice, persisted despite massive losses—over 2 million dead, mostly civilians.
The U.S.’s refusal to negotiate early prolonged suffering, but Vietnam’s resilience, banking on wearing down the stronger side, eventually forced America’s withdrawal. This pattern repeats in today’s Middle East, like Palestine, where the weaker side fights on, hoping prolonged resistance or global moral outrage shifts the tide.
Now consider one side with the first assumption and the other with the second. In the Oslo Accords (1990s), Palestinian leaders like Yasser Arafat, the weaker party, assumed shared goals of peace and pushed for a two-state solution. Israel, the stronger side, had factions that viewed Palestinians as threats, spurning deep negotiations. When Oslo collapsed, the Second Intifada erupted, killing over 4,000, mostly Palestinians. The weaker side’s openness crashed against the stronger side’s refusal, showing how power asymmetry amplifies suffering when negotiation is dismissed.
Reverse the roles, and the challenge persists. Early in India’s Independence Movement, Mahatma Gandhi, leading the weaker side, assumed the British shared a desire for justice and offered nonviolent dialogue. The British Empire, wielding vast power, saw Indians as threats to order and responded with force, like the 1919 Amritsar massacre (379 deaths). Peace stalled, with moderate suffering, until British assumptions shifted. This highlights that the weaker side’s goodwill alone can’t break through a stronger side’s hardline stance.
But when both sides adopt the second assumption, history shines. By the 1940s, Gandhi’s persistent nonviolence convinced the British to see shared goals—India’s self-rule, Britain’s stability.
Negotiations led to independence in 1947, far less bloody than struggles like Algeria’s war against France (over 400,000 deaths). Even in this asymmetric case, mutual negotiation minimized suffering, proving its power.
India’s triumph shows that mutual assumptions of good faith, even in asymmetric fights, can deliver peace, order, and justice with the least pain. In today’s lopsided conflicts, choosing dialogue over demonization is the move that saves lives.
In asymmetric conflicts, Game Theory’s iterative logic—where strategies pay off over repeated plays—applies to protracted struggles like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Palestine.
The stronger side often assumes the weaker seeks chaos, but history shows it’s smarter to assume shared goals and address grievances, even at minor cost. This can de-escalate early, as seen in India’s success in our struggle for freedom.
The weaker side, facing suppression or a long-shot win, often keeps fighting, betting on the stronger side’s fatigue or moral backlash, as in Vietnam or Palestine’s ongoing resistance. But this path racks up immense human costs—millions dead in Vietnam, thousands in Gaza. Yet, for the weaker side, persistent resistance is their only hope and leverage, until the stronger side shifts.
History’s lesson is vivid: for the stronger side, assuming shared goals and negotiating early, even with concessions, cuts losses and builds peace faster.
This almost always involves mitigation of the existing power asymmetry. That is, for the stronger side to voluntarily and wisely yield to aspiration of the weaker side for a less unequal world order.
Conflicts get resolved when power asymmetry is mitigated -- when natural forces that cause conflicts balance each other.
In chess, the pivotal move isn’t just strategy, but what you assume about your opponent’s next moves. History reveals that wars and peace-talks hinge on deliberate choices by leaders and people, shaped by two core assumptions about the other side’s motives.
These choices determine whether we spiral into bloodshed or find peace, especially in asymmetric conflicts where power imbalances loom large. By weaving through historical tales, we’ll uncover which assumption offers the best shot at peace, order, and justice with the least human cost—particularly so, in today’s divided world.
The first assumption is rigid: our side stands for peace, order, and justice, while the other seeks violence, anarchy, and injustice. This mindset slams the door on talks, viewing any offer of negotiation as a ruse.
The second assumption is open-hearted: both sides want peace, order, and justice, just through different paths—clashing cultures, interests, or values. Those who adopt this view prioritize negotiation and compromise.
When both sides embrace the first assumption, it’s a recipe for devastation, as seen in the War on Terror post-9/11. The U.S., wielding immense power, assumed its invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were righteous crusades for order, branding groups like al-Qaeda as chaos incarnate. These groups, vastly weaker, saw themselves as resisting Western oppression. Both refused dialogue, choosing violence. The toll? Over 800,000 deaths in Iraq and conflicts that still fester. This mutual demonization shows how a “we’re good, they’re evil” mindset wrecks both sides.
Take the Vietnam War (1955–1975), where the U.S., the stronger side, assumed North Vietnam and the Viet Cong were threats to global order, rejecting serious talks. The weaker Vietnamese, fighting for independence and justice, persisted despite massive losses—over 2 million dead, mostly civilians.
The U.S.’s refusal to negotiate early prolonged suffering, but Vietnam’s resilience, banking on wearing down the stronger side, eventually forced America’s withdrawal. This pattern repeats in today’s Middle East, like Palestine, where the weaker side fights on, hoping prolonged resistance or global moral outrage shifts the tide.
Now consider one side with the first assumption and the other with the second. In the Oslo Accords (1990s), Palestinian leaders like Yasser Arafat, the weaker party, assumed shared goals of peace and pushed for a two-state solution. Israel, the stronger side, had factions that viewed Palestinians as threats, spurning deep negotiations. When Oslo collapsed, the Second Intifada erupted, killing over 4,000, mostly Palestinians. The weaker side’s openness crashed against the stronger side’s refusal, showing how power asymmetry amplifies suffering when negotiation is dismissed.
Reverse the roles, and the challenge persists. Early in India’s Independence Movement, Mahatma Gandhi, leading the weaker side, assumed the British shared a desire for justice and offered nonviolent dialogue. The British Empire, wielding vast power, saw Indians as threats to order and responded with force, like the 1919 Amritsar massacre (379 deaths). Peace stalled, with moderate suffering, until British assumptions shifted. This highlights that the weaker side’s goodwill alone can’t break through a stronger side’s hardline stance.
But when both sides adopt the second assumption, history shines. By the 1940s, Gandhi’s persistent nonviolence convinced the British to see shared goals—India’s self-rule, Britain’s stability.
Negotiations led to independence in 1947, far less bloody than struggles like Algeria’s war against France (over 400,000 deaths). Even in this asymmetric case, mutual negotiation minimized suffering, proving its power.
India’s triumph shows that mutual assumptions of good faith, even in asymmetric fights, can deliver peace, order, and justice with the least pain. In today’s lopsided conflicts, choosing dialogue over demonization is the move that saves lives.
In asymmetric conflicts, Game Theory’s iterative logic—where strategies pay off over repeated plays—applies to protracted struggles like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Palestine.
The stronger side often assumes the weaker seeks chaos, but history shows it’s smarter to assume shared goals and address grievances, even at minor cost. This can de-escalate early, as seen in India’s success in our struggle for freedom.
The weaker side, facing suppression or a long-shot win, often keeps fighting, betting on the stronger side’s fatigue or moral backlash, as in Vietnam or Palestine’s ongoing resistance. But this path racks up immense human costs—millions dead in Vietnam, thousands in Gaza. Yet, for the weaker side, persistent resistance is their only hope and leverage, until the stronger side shifts.
History’s lesson is vivid: for the stronger side, assuming shared goals and negotiating early, even with concessions, cuts losses and builds peace faster.
This almost always involves mitigation of the existing power asymmetry. That is, for the stronger side to voluntarily and wisely yield to aspiration of the weaker side for a less unequal world order.
Conflicts get resolved when power asymmetry is mitigated -- when natural forces that cause conflicts balance each other.
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